Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85ea…fbd1 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1
other 21% −$5
politics 13% +$6
weather 0% +$2
sports 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.1% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +4.7% -5.3% 30% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 34 +3.8% -6.1% 38% 3% -9.3%
all 40 +1.0% -8.7% 42% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 8% -9.8%
10% -17.4% 5% -18.4%
15% -25.4% 5% -26.3%
20% -32.7% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage531d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 −$4 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $42 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $136 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $110 +$3 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $43 $0 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $294 +$2 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Lakers vs. Jazz Feb 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1? Feb 05 $4 +$4 +89%
Will the Bills beat the Broncos by 9 or more points? Jan 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? Jan 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $32 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $3 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $28 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $11 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $21 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $9 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.48 · official $0.00 · 184 history records