Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T00:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x85e8…474a other 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$87,616 (+28%) realized +$66,475 · open +$21,141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%76W / 75L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$2,045per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$33,835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26,974
7 days+$55,319
14 days+$55,505
30 days+$82,876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$76,819
sports 5% −$204
crypto 5% +$12,911
world 1% −$3,288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +84.9% +67.3% 53% 53% +76.8%
≤30d 34 +54.2% +39.5% 56% 56% +67.6%
≤90d 145 +0.2% -9.3% 49% 48% +9.1%
all 151 +3.8% -6.1% 50% 48% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 48% +9.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 45% -0.7%
15% -23.3% 33% -10.3%
20% -30.8% 23% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$2,969) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,855 vs −$2,053 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$33,835
Realized+$66,475
Unrealized+$21,141
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses76 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions4
Markets (closed)151 / 155
History coverage215d
Avg bet$2,045
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 34¢ 100¢ $10,924 $32,114 +$21,190 (+194%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 70¢ $940 $808 −$132 (-14%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $488 $485 −$3 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 80¢ 100¢ $342 $428 +$86 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,262 +$14,509 +1150%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,481 +$1,126 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $1,144 −$1,144 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15,363 +$12,911 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,478 +$1,052 +71%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,355 +$24,394 +456%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14,740 +$16,501 +112%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $418 +$182 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $278 −$278 -100%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-25? Jun 12 $765 −$765 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $739 −$739 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,691 −$1,691 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9,562 −$9,562 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $82 +$9 +11%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $115 +$326 +285%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $378 +$186 +49%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,480 +$1,366 +92%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2,969 +$1,355 +46%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $608 −$608 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $301 −$301 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 29 $832 −$832 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 29 $4,182 −$843 -20%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 29 $2,743 −$2,743 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $465 +$525 +113%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1,179 +$1,056 +90%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,676 +$3,303 +197%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6,869 +$15,085 +220%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $513 +$149 +29%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $447 +$122 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 20 $4,797 −$4,797 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $9,475 +$14,862 +157%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4,825 −$4,825 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $431 +$501 +116%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $132 −$132 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $552 −$552 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 11 $3,724 −$3,724 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8,446 −$8,446 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $4,527 −$4,527 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $811 +$222 +27%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $238 +$107 +45%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $302 +$188 +62%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $4,117 −$4,117 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $726 +$134 +18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $4,903 +$717 +15%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $6,258 +$11,856 +190%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3,002 +$13,676 +456%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $75 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $101 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $58 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $110 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $1,300 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $9,624 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $292 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $1 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $26 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $4 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $9 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $1 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $124 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $1 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $2 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $2 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $1 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $0 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,834.57 · official $33,834.57 (match) · 2366 history records