Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85e4…0655 crypto 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$154 (-8%) realized −$169 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%91W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$175
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$117
other 34% −$74
sports 0% +$14
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 41% -18.0%
≤30d 184 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 41% -18.0%
≤90d 211 -13.4% -21.6% 43% 40% -18.6%
all 211 -13.4% -21.6% 43% 40% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 40% -18.6%
10% -29.1% 34% -26.4%
15% -36.0% 32% -33.5%
20% -42.2% 28% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses91 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage38d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $46 $61 +$15 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $207 −$179 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $212 +$38 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $106 +$49 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$43 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$12 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 28m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 29m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 33m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $145 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $100 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $90 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $101 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $111 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $98 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 66¢ $26 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.50 · official $61.50 (match) · 655 history records