Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85e2…f8bc crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (467 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate83%54W / 11L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day467.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (467 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +4.2% -5.7% 83% 38% -5.8%
≤30d 65 +4.2% -5.7% 83% 38% -5.8%
≤90d 65 +4.2% -5.7% 83% 38% -5.8%
all 65 +4.2% -5.7% 83% 38% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover467.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 38% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 15% -14.8%
15% -23.0% 8% -23.0%
20% -30.5% 3% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses54 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day467.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$29 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $230 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $171 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $123 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $70 +$7 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $106 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $397 +$42 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $88 −$5 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $75 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $112 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $171 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $153 +$54 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $60 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $85 +$6 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $95 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $92 −$69 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $135 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $212 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $106 +$16 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $116 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $86 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $151 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.16 · official $33.16 (match) · 528 history records