Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x85e0…b0fd other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$15 (+14%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$1
sports 42% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.2% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 11 +43.3% +29.7% 73% 45% +3.8%
≤90d 11 +43.3% +29.7% 73% 45% +3.8%
all 11 +43.3% +29.7% 73% 45% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.7% 45% +3.8%
10% +17.3% 45% -6.1%
15% +5.9% 45% -15.2%
20% -4.4% 27% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $3 +$16 +507%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$3 +118%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $43 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $20 10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $3 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $14 11d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $3 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 11d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.02 · official $45.02 (match) · 21 history records