Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85df…1e1e sports 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$400 (+7%) realized +$424 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%24W / 61L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$216
7 days−$125
14 days−$125
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$275
sports 27% −$372
economics 17% +$173
politics 13% +$204
world 5% +$642
crypto 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -7.0% -15.8% 23% 15% -12.7%
≤30d 72 -6.2% -15.2% 24% 17% -6.7%
≤90d 72 -6.2% -15.2% 24% 17% -6.7%
all 85 -7.8% -16.5% 28% 22% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 22% -3.7%
10% -24.5% 16% -12.9%
15% -31.8% 13% -21.3%
20% -38.5% 8% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$21 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$424
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses24 / 61
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage644d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $60 $38 −$22 (-36%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 9¢ 8¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$2 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$2 -4%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$2 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 −$39 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $16 −$1 -3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $81 −$38 -47%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $52 +$10 +19%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 −$9 -17%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $35 +$39 +110%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$14 +29%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $48 +$6 +13%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $51 +$82 +161%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,157 −$104 -9%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$39 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 +$3 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$6 -56%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $182 −$7 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $188 −$7 -4%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $7 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 $0 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $28 −$1 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $13 $0 -1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 18 $30 −$24 -79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$153 +622%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -24%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $10 9m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 8¢ $8 9m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 9m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $10 13m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 8¢ $10 13m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 13m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 15m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 18m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 9¢ $52 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $48 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Team Nemesis 63¢ $6 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $24 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 58¢ $6 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $48 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Under 76¢ $16 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 78¢ $16 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 0¢ $16 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $32 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $16 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $16 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 95¢ $29 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $30 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.77 · official $125.80 (match) · 391 history records