Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85dd…6c4f sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-7%) realized −$153 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$123
14 days−$172
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$128
other 30% −$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +25.5% +13.5% 37% 37% -0.8%
≤30d 27 +10.6% +0.1% 33% 33% -17.3%
≤90d 27 +10.6% +0.1% 33% 33% -17.3%
all 27 +10.6% +0.1% 33% 33% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 33% -17.3%
10% -9.5% 33% -25.2%
15% -18.3% 33% -32.4%
20% -26.3% 30% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$72 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage10d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$25 -47%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$199 +388%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $107 +$45 +42%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 +$249 +442%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$164 +321%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $61 +$153 +249%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $201 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $61 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 37¢ $28 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 17h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 17h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 41h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 41h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $153 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $56 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $56 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $215 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $214 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $56 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.87 · official $173.87 (match) · 44 history records