Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x85db…1423 weather 354 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,638 (+3%) realized +$2,600 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%320W / 33L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day51.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$401
14 days+$714
30 days+$2,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.7% -8.9% 88% 17% -6.1%
≤30d 304 +4.0% -5.9% 90% 12% -7.2%
≤90d 353 +4.3% -5.7% 91% 13% -7.1%
all 353 +4.3% -5.7% 91% 13% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 13% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 4% -16.0%
15% -22.9% 1% -24.1%
20% -30.5% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$43 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$2,600
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses320 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)353 / 354
History coverage37d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day51.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $235 $273 +$38 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $210 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $59 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? Jun 26 $192 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $158 +$15 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $261 +$38 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 24? Jun 25 $165 +$17 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 24? Jun 24 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? Jun 24 $70 +$65 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $756 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23? Jun 24 $236 +$35 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $199 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1,267 +$24 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? Jun 23 $73 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 22? Jun 23 $0 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $565 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 21? Jun 22 $191 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $233 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$13 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 21? Jun 21 $124 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $163 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2,681 +$39 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $72 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on June 20? Jun 21 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 21 $401 +$45 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 21 $778 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $438 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? Jun 20 $87 −$52 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $44 −$12 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $345 +$47 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $181 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $175 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $112 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $199 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 86¢ $153 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 83¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 30¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 71¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 75¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 97¢ $23 25h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 97¢ $21 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 94¢ $136 25h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 87¢ $59 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.64 · official $272.64 (match) · 2144 history records