Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x85d8…e16b
crypto · 349 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$50 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses274 / 65
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)339 / 349
History coverage17d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 339 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days−$62
14 days+$44
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 63¢ 52¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Map Handicap: RUST (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) HEROIC Academy 72¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+40%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Hannah Klugman 72¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 43¢ 74¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+71%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 59¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+69%)
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Tamila Gadamauri Tamila Gadamauri 36¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+176%)
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage HEROIC Academy 36¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 31¢ 27¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 70¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Adam Walton 61¢ 25¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner aimclub 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 70¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs Ignite 55¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$9 +85%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$13 -28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 +$149 +228%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$11 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Haydar Cem Gokpinar vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 13 $13 +$1 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 +$7 +57%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $13 +$9 +67%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $9 +$2 +26%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $11 +$12 +104%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $4 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$115
sports 7% +$165
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 31¢ $6 8m
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY RUSTEC 53¢ $6 12m
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY RUSTEC 77¢ $6 27m
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Hannah Klugman 72¢ $6 41m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 72¢ $2 53m
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Adam Walton 61¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner BUY aimclub 73¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $2 1h
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Tamila Gadamauri BUY Tamila Gadamauri 36¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 40¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: RUST (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 76¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: RUST (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 76¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: RUST (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 64¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 32¢ $2 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 100¢ $71 3h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $215 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 47¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 59¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 36¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $12 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 38¢ $12 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 38¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 70¢ $13 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 32¢ $13 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 33¢ $14 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -4.8% -13.8% 74% 62% -14.9%
≤30d 339 +1.7% -8.0% 81% 68% -8.6%
≤90d 339 +1.7% -8.0% 81% 68% -8.6%
all 339 +1.7% -8.0% 81% 68% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 68% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 28% -17.4%
15% -24.9% 6% -25.4%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.10 · official $60.10 (match) · 715 history records