Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x85d6…2bc2
crypto · 5 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$2 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$4
other 10% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.3% -32.4% 67% 33% -32.7%
≤30d 3 -25.3% -32.4% 67% 33% -32.7%
≤90d 3 -25.3% -32.4% 67% 33% -32.7%
all 3 -25.3% -32.4% 67% 33% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 33% -32.7%
10% -38.9% 0% -39.2%
15% -44.8% 0% -45.0%
20% -50.2% 0% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.07 · official $3.07 (match) · 9 history records