Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
85 0x85d5…45ee sports 637 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$218,430 (-4%) realized −$219,522 · open +$1,092
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate66%438W / 229L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,841per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$15,930est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$13,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$148,972
world 7% +$15,377
other 4% −$21,642
crypto 1% +$1,600
culture 0% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -50.7% -55.4% 31% 28% -76.9%
≤30d 157 -27.3% -34.3% 51% 46% -26.5%
≤90d 549 -14.1% -22.3% 62% 54% -21.3%
all 667 -10.1% -18.6% 66% 56% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 56% -15.8%
10% -26.4% 35% -23.9%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 20% -31.3%
20% -40.0% 11% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$9,244) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,761 vs −$4,961 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$13,660
Realized−$219,522
Unrealized+$1,092
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses438 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$15,930
Open positions5
Markets (closed)667 / 637
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$7,841
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 667 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 94¢ 94¢ $9,400 $9,350 −$50 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 72¢ $1,616 $2,864 +$1,248 (+77%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 61¢ 57¢ $1,131 $1,066 −$65 (-6%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $250 $194 −$56 (-22%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 61¢ 66¢ $171 $186 +$15 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Jun 26 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 26 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 26 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $6,270 −$6,270 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $20,736 −$20,736 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $17,347 −$17,347 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 26 $18,286 −$20,350 -111%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 26 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $7,097 −$7,097 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $15,378 −$15,378 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $4,853 −$4,853 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 26 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 26 $6,717 −$6,717 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 26 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $4,913 −$4,913 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Jun 26 $1,841 −$1,841 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 26 $570 −$570 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 26 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 26 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $254 −$119 -47%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $304 −$107 -35%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $303 −$43 -14%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $253 −$87 -35%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $305 −$291 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,027 +$279 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12,553 +$619 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $10,057 +$2,306 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,511 +$489 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,014 +$686 +34%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $605 +$240 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$252 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,017 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $134 0m
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $196 0m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $260 30m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 41¢ $166 43m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $253 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $303 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $254 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $304 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $509 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,006 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,014 21h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 84¢ $5,024 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $164 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $11,983 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 36¢ $453 21h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 78¢ $5,033 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 78¢ $1,007 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 33¢ $306 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1,012 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 26h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,007 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $406 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,511 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,508 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $605 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,659.66 · official $12,213.59 · 3500 history records