Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85d5…6b2b other 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (451 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$144 (-4%) realized −$101 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day450.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$140
politics 15% −$23
sports 7% −$19
tech 6% −$12
weather 5% −$5
culture 4% −$2
world 3% −$13
finance 2% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (451 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -9.0% -17.7% 1% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 147 -9.0% -17.7% 1% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 147 -9.0% -17.7% 1% 0% -14.9%
all 147 -9.0% -17.7% 1% 0% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover450.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 0% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -23.0%
15% -32.8% 0% -30.4%
20% -39.4% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 146
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions40
Markets (closed)147 / 187
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day450.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Yes 69¢ 56¢ $34 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Will the announcers say "Combination" or "Sequence" 5+ times during UFC 250? No 90¢ 46¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-49%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 62¢ 45¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-27%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? Yes 78¢ 44¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $6B in 2026? Yes 56¢ 43¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 60¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+455%)
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? No 20¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026? Yes 51¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 92¢ 93¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 68¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? No 76¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 23¢ 60¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+161%)
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 71¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? No 58¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 13¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
City Protocol FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $145B by June 30? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 39¢ 6¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-86%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 -7%
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? Jun 17 $47 −$1 -3%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 17 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? Jun 17 $44 −$4 -8%
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $12 $0 -4%
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St Jun 17 $80 −$9 -12%
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 16 $129 −$7 -6%
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? Jun 16 $31 $0 -2%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 16 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Erling Haaland score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 16 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -4%
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$1 -1%
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri Jun 16 $28 −$1 -5%
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 16 $70 −$4 -6%
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 16 $35 −$2 -6%
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 16 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c Jun 16 $75 −$4 -6%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 16 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc Jun 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 16 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 16 $14 $0 -2%
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 16 $13 −$1 -4%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 16 $52 −$2 -3%
Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 16 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 16 $68 −$4 -6%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 Jun 16 $22 −$3 -13%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 16 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 16 $15 $0 -3%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 16 $13 $0 -4%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -5%
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 16 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 15m
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? SELL No 15¢ $7 27m
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 31m
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 32m
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? BUY No 18¢ $9 32m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 40m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 42m
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $14 46m
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 46m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 45¢ $13 47m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 47¢ $5 47m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY No 47¢ $19 47m
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 49m
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 49m
Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 49m
Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 50m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? SELL No 77¢ $34 50m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No 78¢ $16 50m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No 78¢ $16 50m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? SELL No 78¢ $8 52m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No 78¢ $8 52m
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No 78¢ $4 52m
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 53¢ $12 1h
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $12 1h
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $2 1h
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $2 1h
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St SELL No 63¢ $31 1h
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 35¢ $2 1h
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.44 · official $161.00 (match) · 591 history records