Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x85d2…7479 weather 689 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,503 (+11%) realized +$5,503 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%411W / 274L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$1,312
14 days+$2,036
30 days+$3,401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$4,904
other 0% +$6
sports 0% +$38
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +42.3% +28.8% 62% 48% +2.3%
≤30d 400 +11.9% +1.2% 58% 37% -1.5%
≤90d 685 +24.3% +12.4% 60% 42% -0.7%
all 685 +24.3% +12.4% 60% 42% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.4% 42% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 31% -10.2%
15% -8.2% 23% -18.9%
20% -17.2% 18% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$5,503
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses411 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)685 / 689
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$74
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? Yes 71¢ 93¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? No 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $47 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $28 +$18 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 +$7 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $56 +$5 +9%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $10 +$15 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2,043 +$180 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $214 +$116 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $710 −$303 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $48 −$24 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $46 −$43 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 +$50 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$12 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $352 −$4 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$17 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$22 +397%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$10 +195%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $249 +$66 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $154 +$75 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 −$4 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 −$32 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$3 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $54 +$39 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 −$14 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$11 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 16 $895 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $507 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$6 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $426 −$5 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $87 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$16 +263%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$227 +796%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $230 −$230 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$25 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $210 +$171 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $344 +$17 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? SELL No 14¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 30m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 9¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 21¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 90¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 64¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 58¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 50¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 34¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 40¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 40¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 32¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $42 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 45¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 46¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $37 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.14 · official $10.16 (match) · 3500 history records