Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85ce…3529 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-6%) realized −$29 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$40
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$62
other 5% +$3
world 3% −$20
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -28.5% -35.3% 41% 33% -15.9%
≤30d 88 -28.9% -35.7% 40% 33% -19.7%
≤90d 88 -28.9% -35.7% 40% 33% -19.7%
all 88 -28.9% -35.7% 40% 33% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.7% 33% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 27% -27.4%
15% -47.5% 18% -34.4%
20% -52.6% 11% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)88 / 99
History coverage9d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$9 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.99 · official $12.99 (match) · 251 history records