Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85c0…4a06 sports 1682 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1656W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$93
weather 19% +$16
other 16% +$13
finance 2% +$2
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 207 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1319 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.6%
all 1681 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1656 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1681 / 1682
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $50 4h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 26h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $50 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 26h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 29h
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $24 36h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $50 42h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 45h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 45h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 45h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 100¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 100¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 100¢ $7 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 100¢ $22 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 3500 history records