Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x85c0…e01d
weather · 667 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$12,944 +65%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$932 · open +$97
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$332
Realized−$932
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses160 / 691
Open positions13
Markets (closed)851 / 667
History coverage54d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day61.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 851 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,696
7 days−$4,919
14 days−$4,393
30 days−$2,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 99¢ $24 $148 +$125 (+526%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 42¢ $26 $62 +$36 (+136%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $56 $44 −$12 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $8 $14 +$5 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $27 $11 −$16 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $19 $8 −$10 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$17 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on April 10? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 5? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 17? No 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 16? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 3? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on April 10? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 1°C on January 5? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 1 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16? Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or higher on January 3? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26-27°F on February 1 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Ja Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26? Jun 14 $6 +$47 +848%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 16? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 26? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on January 5? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 8? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 10? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 21? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 3? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on January 4? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 27? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 6? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on January 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11? Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19? Jun 14 $8 +$4 +54%
Pelicans vs. Magic Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on December 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 12? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on February 25? Jun 14 $65 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 2? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 1? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on November 19 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 2? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 18? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 7? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 8? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27? Jun 14 $6 +$61 +1021%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12? Jun 14 $12 +$19 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$5,090
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 26m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 27m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 46m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 50m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 52m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 -45.6% -50.8% 10% 8% -53.4%
≤30d 489 -18.2% -26.0% 18% 14% -20.4%
≤90d 851 -4.1% -13.2% 19% 16% -14.2%
all 851 -4.1% -13.2% 19% 16% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 16% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 15% -22.4%
15% -29.1% 14% -29.9%
20% -36.1% 13% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.87 · official $331.91 (match) · 3500 history records