Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85be…882e world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%32W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$10
other 25% +$2
sports 18% −$2
politics 12% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 4% -10.4%
≤90d 70 +3.5% -6.4% 31% 3% -9.9%
all 96 +0.5% -9.0% 33% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -9.9%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 64
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage373d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $69 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $30 −$2 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $29 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $29 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $58 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $140 −$10 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 +$4 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 −$3 -13%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $28 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $80 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $51 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $38 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $46 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $6 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $28 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $28 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $30 31h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $29 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $21 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records