Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85bc…6d0f crypto 73 markets active 3d ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$280 (-22%) realized −$280 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$239
crypto 39% −$63
sports 18% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +32.6% +20.0% 23% 23% -23.2%
≤30d 34 +17.0% +5.8% 21% 21% -37.4%
≤90d 73 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 29% -30.8%
all 73 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 29% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 29% -30.8%
10% -15.8% 29% -37.4%
15% -23.9% 27% -43.5%
20% -31.4% 21% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage43d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $70 +$25 +36%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$133 +1843%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 +$14 +184%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$31 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$61 +597%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $20 +$37 +180%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$23 +46%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $103 −$101 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 08 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 06 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 06 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 06 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 06 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 06 $5 +$8 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 06 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 24¢ $31 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $95 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 72¢ $70 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 56¢ $22 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 58¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 5d
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records