Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85ba…6a85 sports 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$159 (-4%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate72%50W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$174
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 69 -7.8% -16.6% 72% 33% -13.4%
all 69 -7.8% -16.6% 72% 33% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 33% -13.4%
10% -24.6% 12% -21.7%
15% -31.9% 7% -29.3%
20% -38.6% 6% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$23 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses50 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage75d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5) Norway 88¢ 89¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 11 $118 −$114 -96%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $101 +$12 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $92 +$12 +13%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $123 +$6 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fo May 09 $121 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 09 $2 $0 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev May 08 $113 +$8 +7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek May 08 $111 +$2 +2%
Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Juan Manuel La Serna May 08 $110 +$1 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $3 +$2 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova May 07 $108 +$4 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Tereza Valentova May 07 $96 +$7 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx May 07 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $1 +$4 +364%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $30 −$24 -78%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $1 $0 +38%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $114 +$3 +2%
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 05 $3 +$1 +21%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 05 $55 +$10 +18%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 05 $15 −$15 -100%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: United Arab Emirates vs Oman May 03 $67 −$27 -40%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $41 +$3 +8%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 02 $37 +$3 +8%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $32 +$4 +13%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Apr 30 $29 +$3 +11%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $19 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 26 $8 −$4 -47%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings - Who wins the t Apr 25 $2 +$2 +89%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machac Apr 25 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 24 $22 −$20 -90%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $162 +$5 +3%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 24 $161 +$2 +1%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Italy vs USA Apr 24 $148 +$14 +9%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Nepal vs Vanuatu Apr 24 $139 +$10 +7%
Savannah: Daniel Galan vs Stefan Dostanic Apr 24 $125 +$20 +16%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $116 +$4 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 23 $228 +$2 +1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $82 +$15 +18%
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana Apr 22 $1 −$1 -63%
Abidjan: Samir Hamza Reguig vs Oscar Weightman Apr 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $4 +$2 +65%
Madrid Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Emilio Nava Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Yulia Starodubtseva Apr 22 $91 +$7 +7%
T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: USA vs Vanuatu Apr 22 $88 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $21 21m
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL Norway 89¢ $21 23m
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Norway 88¢ $50 1h
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 91¢ $117 47d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians SELL Mumbai Indians 65¢ $5 47d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 14¢ $1 47d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $113 47d
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $101 47d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Chennai Super Kings 100¢ $102 47d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Chennai Super Kings 88¢ $90 47d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants SELL Lucknow Super Giants 28¢ $3 47d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 20¢ $2 47d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 80¢ $10 47d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $4 47d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $25 47d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 95¢ $123 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fo SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $122 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fo BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 99¢ $121 48d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes $2 48d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes $2 48d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 99¢ $122 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $113 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek SELL Iga Swiatek 98¢ $113 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Caty McNally vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 96¢ $111 49d
Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Luis Guto Miguel 100¢ $111 49d
Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Luis Guto Miguel 98¢ $109 49d
Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna $1 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $109 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $1 49d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 97¢ $107 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.82 · official $49.82 (match) · 193 history records