Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85b9…906d other 204 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (150 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45,078 (+21%) realized +$41,934 · open +$3,144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%90W / 29L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,073per market
Trades / day149.7pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$41,592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$10,614
crypto 13% +$163
sports 11% +$2,602
politics 10% +$325
finance 0% +$3,597
world 0% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (150 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +27.1% +15.0% 75% 18% -5.7%
≤30d 119 +50.5% +36.1% 76% 29% -2.4%
≤90d 119 +50.5% +36.1% 76% 29% -2.4%
all 119 +50.5% +36.1% 76% 29% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover149.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.1% 29% -2.4%
10% +23.1% 17% -11.7%
15% ← realistic here +11.2% 14% -20.2%
20% +0.3% 13% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,166) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +76% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$181 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$41,592
Realized+$41,934
Unrealized+$3,144
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses90 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions87
Markets (closed)119 / 204
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$1,073
Trades / day149.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 99¢ $15,840 $17,748 +$1,908 (+12%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 70¢ $6,434 $7,652 +$1,219 (+19%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,485 $1,496 +$11 (+1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 23¢ 24¢ $1,424 $1,455 +$32 (+2%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $1,368 $1,393 +$25 (+2%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $1,101 $1,111 +$10 (+1%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 90¢ 95¢ $904 $946 +$42 (+5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 96¢ $897 $939 +$42 (+5%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $860 $830 −$30 (-3%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $610 $618 +$8 (+1%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $607 $611 +$3 (+1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 18¢ $580 $591 +$11 (+2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 32¢ $527 $519 −$8 (-2%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $454 $459 +$5 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $450 $457 +$8 (+2%)
Will Emiliano Buendía score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $425 $432 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 72¢ 62¢ $432 $375 −$57 (-13%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 5¢ $293 $324 +$31 (+11%)
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 80¢ $266 $298 +$32 (+12%)
Will Ivory Coast go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $192 $224 +$31 (+16%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $253 $222 −$31 (-12%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $182 $189 +$7 (+4%)
Will Uruguay finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 92¢ 93¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 84¢ 92¢ $168 $184 +$16 (+10%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $146 $179 +$33 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 19 $1,236 +$607 +49%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,225 +$66 +3%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3,895 −$1 -0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $1,921 +$88 +5%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 19 $796 +$981 +123%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,380 +$584 +42%
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 18 $461 +$25 +5%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $527 +$14 +3%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $403 +$7 +2%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $279 $0 +0%
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 18 $240 +$142 +59%
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 18 $443 +$290 +66%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,255 −$149 -7%
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $104 +$4 +4%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,060 +$18 +2%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,440 +$430 +30%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,276 +$45 +2%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $659 +$45 +7%
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +2%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $615 +$128 +21%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $1,365 +$49 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,551 −$1,540 -99%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,405 +$75 +3%
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,120 +$1 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Jun 17 $341 +$49 +14%
Will Florian Wirtz win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $348 +$16 +5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,166 +$34 +3%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 16 $2,889 +$126 +4%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,149 +$101 +9%
Will Kaoru Mitoma score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $494 +$6 +1%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,132 +$18 +2%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $440 +$66 +15%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $1,483 +$40 +3%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jeremie Frimpong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
Will João Pedro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,234 +$20 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $1,470 +$15 +1%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $92 −$10 -11%
Will Yann Bisseck score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $112 +$3 +3%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,613 +$34 +1%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,370 +$58 +4%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $942 +$176 +19%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,838 +$12 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 13 $25 +$2 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,306 +$82 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 99¢ $1,485 0m
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 3¢ $1 0m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $125 8m
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 3¢ $19 14m
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 32¢ $90 15m
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 91¢ $336 22m
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 38¢ $7 39m
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 49¢ $10 50m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 79¢ $925 53m
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 24¢ $122 53m
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 85¢ $858 59m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $538 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 79¢ $9 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 16¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 32¢ $4 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 49¢ $257 1h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 91¢ $63 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 8¢ $1 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 8¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 32¢ $12 1h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 24¢ $72 2h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 8¢ $4 2h
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 32¢ $0 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $232 2h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $60 2h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 82¢ $13 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,592.50 · official $41,618.98 (match) · 3500 history records