Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85b8…6b6a other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$106,375 (+25%) realized +$101,944 · open +$4,431
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate45%58W / 70L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,791per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$141,377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$45,387
politics 33% −$1,185
sports 3% −$1,553
culture 1% +$1,611
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -83.0% -84.6% 11% 9% -45.6%
≤30d 71 -23.7% -30.9% 31% 25% -28.9%
≤90d 109 -15.8% -23.8% 41% 29% -25.8%
all 128 -15.0% -23.1% 45% 29% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 29% -19.3%
10% -30.4% 22% -27.0%
15% ← realistic here -37.1% 20% -34.1%
20% -43.3% 16% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$3,280) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,220 vs −$1,633 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$141,377
Realized+$101,944
Unrealized+$4,431
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses58 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions30
Markets (closed)128 / 112
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$3,791
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 32¢ 51¢ $21,943 $34,908 +$12,965 (+59%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 88¢ 96¢ $25,225 $27,712 +$2,487 (+10%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $15,669 $14,402 −$1,266 (-8%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $13,639 $13,708 +$69 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 18¢ 18¢ $13,331 $13,282 −$49 (-0%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 89¢ 100¢ $9,695 $10,824 +$1,129 (+12%)
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by September 30? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $6,097 $6,245 +$148 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $7,664 $5,477 −$2,187 (-29%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3,323 $3,083 −$240 (-7%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 62¢ 86¢ $2,223 $3,054 +$831 (+37%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $3,173 $2,658 −$515 (-16%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,624 $1,705 +$81 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 51¢ 42¢ $1,234 $1,028 −$206 (-17%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 87¢ 99¢ $592 $675 +$83 (+14%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $2,689 $627 −$2,062 (-77%)
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? No 71¢ 98¢ $383 $529 +$146 (+38%)
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 84¢ 94¢ $386 $435 +$48 (+12%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2,057 $279 −$1,777 (-86%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $188 $195 +$7 (+4%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $347 $172 −$175 (-50%)
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? No 89¢ 100¢ $94 $105 +$11 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $109 $93 −$16 (-15%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3,437 $66 −$3,371 (-98%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+12%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $131 $31 −$100 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $3,870 −$3,870 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 28 $40 −$41 -102%
Will Gary Anderson win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Jun 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix Pole? Jun 28 $5,574 −$5,574 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 28 $11,891 −$10,962 -92%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $3,916 −$3,921 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Jun 28 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 28 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 28 $1,895 −$1,617 -85%
Rams vs. Bears Jun 28 $2,350 −$1,161 -49%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $1,692 −$1,692 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2 Jun 28 $946 −$946 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 28 $1,676 −$1,676 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Jun 28 $585 −$585 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 28 $8,343 −$8,343 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 28 $298 −$298 -100%
Will South Africa win? Jun 28 $4,359 −$4,359 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 28 $719 −$719 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 28 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 28 $139 −$139 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 28 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jun 28 $3,702 −$3,702 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Pri Jun 28 $741 −$741 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $974 −$974 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $14,516 −$14,515 -100%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Jun 28 $572 −$719 -126%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Jun 28 $1,714 −$1,714 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $575 −$590 -102%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $1,458 −$1,458 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 28 $1,185 −$1,180 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $1,413 −$1,459 -103%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 28 $248 −$248 -100%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19? Jun 26 $405 −$213 -53%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $640 +$315 +49%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $17,467 +$3,041 +17%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $50,852 +$16,686 +33%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $109 +$9 +8%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2,535 +$542 +21%
Will England win? Jun 20 $329 −$320 -97%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $3,422 +$1,407 +41%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1,616 +$1,203 +74%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $23 +$16 +69%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $1,369 −$801 -58%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2,892 +$11,230 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 60¢ $47 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 73¢ $6 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 73¢ $689 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $8 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $27 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $1,207 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 80¢ $997 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $175 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $125 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $39 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $122 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $20 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $284 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $54 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $189 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $889 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $350 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $114 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $25 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $157 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $912 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $98 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $27 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $64 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $18 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $190 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $18 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $369 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $190 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $18 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141,376.52 · official $141,378.76 (match) · 3500 history records