Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x85b7…57a1
crypto · 81 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$242 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$242 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage104d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 80 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 52¢ 57¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Netanyahu out by March 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$33 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$36 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$36 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$33 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $43 −$39 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$56 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $49 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$21 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$19 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$31 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$28 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$21 +341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$60
world 6% −$100
other 5% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +5.8% -4.3% 56% 47% -11.1%
≤30d 55 +5.8% -4.3% 56% 47% -11.1%
≤90d 55 +5.8% -4.3% 56% 47% -11.1%
all 80 +1.6% -8.0% 52% 45% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 45% -23.5%
10% -16.8% 42% -30.8%
15% -24.9% 35% -37.5%
20% -32.2% 31% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.53 · official $5.14 (match) · 383 history records