Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85b7…b074 world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$15
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$20
other 31% −$18
sports 22% −$1
economics 11% $0
politics 3% −$1
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 26 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 0% -9.5%
all 60 +1.0% -8.6% 32% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 41
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage330d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $169 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $112 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $212 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $97 +$5 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $106 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $97 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $97 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $153 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $170 +$9 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $186 +$6 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $185 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $193 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $174 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $66 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $67 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $89 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $48 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $606 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $51 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $92 −$17 -19%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $773 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $694 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 26 $2 +$2 +70%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 25 $8 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $3 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $76 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $66 $0 -1%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 23 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $102 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 9h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $72 24h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $72 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $71 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $112 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $102 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $101 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $110 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $111 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $57 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $45 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $97 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $90 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $90 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $106 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $106 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $93 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $3 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $97 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $97 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $58 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $56 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.17 · official $101.92 (match) · 251 history records