Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
85 0x85b3…0b2e crypto 1577 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,297 (-6%) realized −$1,298 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate70%1098W / 478L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day48.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$50
14 days−$912
30 days−$660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,092
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -1.7% -11.0% 96% 3% -10.6%
≤30d 760 -3.1% -12.3% 84% 21% -13.5%
≤90d 1576 -5.5% -14.5% 70% 31% -14.3%
all 1576 -5.5% -14.5% 70% 31% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 31% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 23% -22.5%
15% -30.2% 18% -30.0%
20% -37.0% 14% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1,298
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1098 / 478
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1576 / 1577
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day48.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $38 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $36 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $36 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.20 · official $39.20 (match) · 3500 history records