trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | +8.0% | -2.3% | 60% | 60% | +16.3% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +5.7% | -4.3% | 50% | 50% | +15.0% |
| all | 6 | +5.7% | -4.3% | 50% | 50% | +15.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.3% | 50% | +15.0% |
| 10% | -13.5% | 50% | +4.0% |
| 15% | -21.9% | 50% | -6.1% |
| 20% | -29.5% | 50% | -15.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $550 | $345 | −$205 (-37%) |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $408 | $341 | −$66 (-16%) |
| Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 37¢ | 38¢ | $311 | $323 | +$12 (+4%) |
| Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 20¢ | $141 | $218 | +$76 (+54%) |
| Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 40¢ | 38¢ | $80 | $76 | −$4 (-5%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 20¢ | $25 | $30 | +$5 (+18%) |
| Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $25 | −$25 (-50%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Scotland (-1.5) | Jun 13 | $38 | −$37 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $74 | −$57 | -76% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 09 | $204 | +$156 | +77% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 31 | $51 | +$38 | +74% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 23 | $12 | +$8 | +65% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? | May 14 | $17 | −$1 | -6% |