Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x85ae…6a12 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$233 · open −$206
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$62
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$263
sports 15% +$165
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 60% +16.3%
≤90d 6 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% +15.0%
all 6 +5.7% -4.3% 50% 50% +15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 50% +15.0%
10% -13.5% 50% +4.0%
15% -21.9% 50% -6.1%
20% -29.5% 50% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$32 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,359
Realized+$233
Unrealized−$206
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 14
History coverage52d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $550 $345 −$205 (-37%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $408 $341 −$66 (-16%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $311 $323 +$12 (+4%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $141 $218 +$76 (+54%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $74 −$57 -76%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $204 +$156 +77%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $51 +$38 +74%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 23 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 14 $17 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $81 1h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $103 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $58 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $58 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $48 5d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 6d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $38 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $38 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $10 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,358.52 · official $1,358.52 (match) · 75 history records