Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:25:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
85 0x85ae…5399 sports 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,667 (+6%) realized +$1,716 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%100W / 98L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$736now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days−$2,146
14 days−$2,272
30 days−$1,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,368
other 3% −$158
world 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -9.9% -18.5% 60% 55% -29.2%
≤30d 65 +8.8% -1.6% 60% 54% -22.9%
≤90d 148 +25.8% +13.8% 53% 43% -11.2%
all 198 +17.5% +6.3% 51% 42% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 42% -5.6%
10% -3.8% 35% -14.7%
15% -13.1% 33% -22.9%
20% -21.6% 27% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$96 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$736
Realized+$1,716
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses100 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions11
Markets (closed)198 / 209
History coverage144d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 80¢ $234 $358 +$124 (+53%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 68¢ 82¢ $102 $124 +$22 (+21%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 33¢ 18¢ $100 $56 −$45 (-45%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 42¢ 44¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 20¢ $40 $19 −$21 (-52%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 78¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? Yes $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 64¢ 70¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
World Cup: Total Tournament Goals O/U 264.5 Under 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 65¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $72 +$8 +11%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 +$7 +33%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $285 +$121 +42%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $282 −$277 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $697 +$395 +57%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $172 +$168 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $2,048 +$1,079 +53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $120 −$119 -99%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $85 −$83 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs DMG Esports (BO5) - NLC Playoffs Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Rockets vs. Pacers Jun 12 $197 −$197 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Jun 12 $475 −$475 -100%
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark Jun 12 $553 −$553 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Ser Jun 12 $485 −$485 -100%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $526 −$526 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $317 −$317 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 12 $818 −$818 -100%
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 12 $596 −$596 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $321 +$205 +64%
Will Ivan Perišić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $44 +$23 +52%
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +72%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $34 +$7 +21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $72 −$1 -2%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $72 +$5 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $11 +$8 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $6 +$4 +58%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $24 +$10 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $25 +$12 +49%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $41 +$13 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $81 +$29 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $101 +$52 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $149 +$89 +60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $174 +$70 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $211 +$79 +37%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $408 +$223 +54%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $18 +$13 +74%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 10 $61 +$39 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 +$5 +89%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 06 $117 −$115 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $12 −$11 -98%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 03 $58 −$56 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $15 +$76 +497%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 33¢ $102 17m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $43 1h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 97¢ $3 13h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $79 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 35h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 78¢ $35 47h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 40¢ $79 2d
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 40¢ $204 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 65¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 65¢ $58 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $372 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $53 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 65¢ $7 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $48 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $47 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $4 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 81¢ $75 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 81¢ $5 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 81¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $736.13 · official $760.13 · 1014 history records