Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

85 0x85ad…f8c7 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$4 (+103%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +365% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +321% what you keep after slip

Net edge+321%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+320.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+365.2%	+320.9%	100%	100%	+320.9%
≤30d	1	+365.2%	+320.9%	100%	100%	+320.9%
≤90d	1	+365.2%	+320.9%	100%	100%	+320.9%
all	1	+365.2%	+320.9%	100%	100%	+320.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+320.9%	100%	+320.9%
10%	+280.6%	100%	+280.6%
15%	+243.8%	100%	+243.8%
20%	+210.1%	100%	+210.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +365% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +365% · $-wt +365% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$1

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	26¢	28¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+10%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$1	+$4	+365%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1	1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	43h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$1	43h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.85 · official $2.85 (match) · 4 history records