Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85ad…d3fb sports 1200 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,205 (-9%) realized −$1,200 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%641W / 546L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$133
14 days+$92
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,053
other 21% +$271
world 0% −$10
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +42.4% +28.8% 54% 54% +23.6%
≤30d 238 +19.5% +8.2% 55% 54% -5.2%
≤90d 1187 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 52% -14.9%
all 1187 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 52% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 52% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 46% -23.0%
15% -24.6% 39% -30.4%
20% -32.0% 32% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$1,200
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses641 / 546
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1187 / 1200
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-22%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 80¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 54¢ 34¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-37%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+41%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Darya Astakhova 62¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+25%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 80¢ 22¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-72%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 77¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+18%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$10 -70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 +$2 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $12 +$18 +152%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 +$21 +179%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $9 −$7 -75%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 +$6 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 +$6 +93%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$107 +264%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +56%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$16 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$7 -30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +59%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $12 −$5 -46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $2 +$1 +64%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 +$74 +1281%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 50¢ $2 11m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $3 11m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $2 12m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $2 18m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $2 20m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $11 21m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $3 22m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 63¢ $3 23m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 61¢ $3 23m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $6 43m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $2 51m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $2 51m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $4 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $4 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 77¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $6 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $2 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $1 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $1 6h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $1 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $2 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 74¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.21 · official $101.22 (match) · 3500 history records