Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85ac…1117 crypto 1340 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$665 (+3%) realized +$665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%627W / 712L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$197
14 days−$475
30 days−$868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$529
sports 1% −$33
other 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -8.6% -17.3% 42% 40% -15.2%
≤30d 511 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 41% -17.4%
≤90d 1334 -3.1% -12.3% 47% 46% -11.7%
all 1339 -3.0% -12.2% 47% 46% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 46% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 44% -20.1%
15% -28.3% 42% -27.8%
20% -35.3% 38% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses627 / 712
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1339 / 1340
History coverage93d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $87 −$18 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$54 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$20 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$16 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$11 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $23 +$16 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$27 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $59 −$31 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$21 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$25 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$23 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$41 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$21 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $30 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $40 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $40 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $48 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $47 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.54 · official $28.54 (match) · 3089 history records