Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x85ac…4de7
other · 424 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$14 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses401 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)421 / 424
History coverage39d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 1 History 421 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? Over 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? No 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
YOM FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Race" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hunt" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Landslide" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Regulation" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ben Griffin finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 06 $3 $0 +1%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial To Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan - Who wins the toss? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson score the first basket of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Champion" during coal announcement? Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
WTT - Men's Singles: Tiago Apolonia vs Manav Thakkar Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 +11%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-2.5) vs M80 (+2.5) Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Zamalek win Egypt Premier League? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Basket Zaragoza vs. Valencia Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Charleen Murphy be cast on Love Island UK: Season 13? Jun 02 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Trump say "Trump Kennedy Center" or "Trump-Kennedy Center" in May Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Birmingham (Doubles): Bartunkova/Eala vs Dart/Lumsden Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 42% +$3
other 41% +$10
politics 5% −$4
crypto 4% +$2
world 4% +$2
weather 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 32m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 4d
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.1% -16.8% 91% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 408 +4.9% -5.1% 95% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 421 +4.7% -5.2% 95% 3% -9.2%
all 421 +4.7% -5.2% 95% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 3% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 1% -17.9%
15% -22.6% 1% -25.9%
20% -30.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.46 · official $0.01 (match) · 917 history records