Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x85a9…4e21 sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,651 (-12%) realized −$1,586 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,536
other 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
≤30d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
≤90d 1 +22.8% +11.1% 100% 100% +11.1%
all 63 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 41% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 41% -20.5%
10% -32.1% 40% -28.1%
15% -38.7% 35% -35.1%
20% -44.7% 29% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$147 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$637
Realized−$1,586
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage211d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 78¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $251 +$57 +23%
Qatar Total Open: Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina Feb 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Feb 12 $1,415 −$1,415 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Feb 12 $250 −$250 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 12 $300 +$134 +45%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers - Game 4 Winner Feb 12 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Feb 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 12 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO5) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Jazz vs. Magic Feb 12 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Feb 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play Feb 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Feb 12 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, P Feb 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Play Feb 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DRX - Map 2 Winner Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 08 $10 −$1 -14%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Feb 08 $150 +$104 +69%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Feb 08 $150 +$122 +82%
Valorant: NRG vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Feb 08 $1,158 −$135 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Middlew Feb 08 $30 +$7 +25%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sara Bejlek vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Feb 08 $70 −$44 -62%
Ostrava Open: Katie Boulter vs Tamara Korpatsch Feb 07 $200 +$100 +50%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-In Feb 07 $100 +$20 +20%
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thijs Boogaard Feb 07 $50 −$1 -2%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Feb 07 $100 +$169 +169%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anastasia Zakh Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 07 $1,125 +$797 +71%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $50 +$17 +33%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Feb 07 $50 +$41 +82%
Knicks vs. Pistons Feb 07 $50 +$25 +49%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $378 +$270 +72%
Valorant: Sentinels vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff P Feb 07 $600 −$323 -54%
Valorant: Sentinels vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Feb 07 $550 −$521 -95%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Play Feb 07 $50 +$50 +100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Feb 06 $50 +$50 +100%
First Blood in Game 2? Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Vera Zvonareva vs Shuai Zhang Feb 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Ostrava Open: Katie Volynets vs Katie Boulter Feb 06 $100 +$69 +70%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Feb 06 $150 +$113 +75%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 06 $50 +$63 +127%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Katarzyna Kawa vs Ella Seidel Feb 06 $801 +$617 +77%
Valorant: TYLOO vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs Feb 06 $50 −$31 -62%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Sonay Kartal vs Simona Waltert Feb 06 $470 −$288 -61%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Feb 06 $50 +$52 +104%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 06 $330 +$265 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $38 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $302 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $304 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $251 1h
Qatar Total Open: Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina BUY Rybakina 74¢ $150 122d
Qatar Total Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari BUY Swiatek 74¢ $500 122d
Qatar Total Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari BUY Swiatek 86¢ $915 122d
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Tsitsipas 34¢ $50 122d
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Tsitsipas 37¢ $50 122d
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Tsitsipas 37¢ $50 122d
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Tsitsipas 51¢ $100 122d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs SELL BNK FEARX 100¢ $434 122d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers - Game 4 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 25¢ $40 122d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers - Game 4 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 30¢ $10 122d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY BNK FEARX 69¢ $300 122d
Valorant: DRX vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs BUY DRX 48¢ $144 122d
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, SELL Strickland 31¢ $9 126d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play BUY Global Esports 44¢ $100 126d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Play BUY Global Esports 46¢ $50 126d
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas SELL Team Secret Whales 100¢ $254 126d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DRX - Map 2 Winner BUY FULL SENSE 47¢ $100 126d
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 61¢ $100 126d
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs BUY FULL SENSE 56¢ $100 126d
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO5) - LCK Cup Play-In BUY Nongshim Red Force 68¢ $200 126d
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers BUY Grizzlies 46¢ $60 126d
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas BUY Team Secret Whales 59¢ $150 126d
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M SELL Bautista 100¢ $272 126d
Valorant: NRG vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $965 126d
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M BUY Bautista 55¢ $150 127d
UFC Fight Night: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (Middlew SELL Oleksiejczuk 100¢ $37 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $637.14 · official $637.14 (match) · 180 history records