Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85a8…9281 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,026 (+4%) realized −$8,323 · open +$12,349
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,280per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$82,386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,149
7 days−$2,026
14 days+$1,311
30 days−$7,247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$4,438
other 17% +$494
politics 1% +$149
crypto 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -37.2% -43.2% 44% 11% -21.2%
≤30d 20 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 30% -26.4%
≤90d 20 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 30% -26.4%
all 20 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 30% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.6% 30% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 20% -33.5%
15% -45.7% 5% -39.9%
20% -51.1% 5% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$3,236) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$495 vs −$1,220 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$82,386
Realized−$8,323
Unrealized+$12,349
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)20 / 50
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2,280
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 35¢ 98¢ $5,013 $13,978 +$8,965 (+179%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $7,349 $7,990 +$641 (+9%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $6,684 $6,868 +$183 (+3%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $5,452 $6,036 +$584 (+11%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $5,731 $6,034 +$304 (+5%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 99¢ $4,944 $5,641 +$697 (+14%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 87¢ 95¢ $4,766 $5,191 +$425 (+9%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $2,475 $2,791 +$316 (+13%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 77¢ 98¢ $1,813 $2,312 +$499 (+27%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 91¢ 93¢ $2,221 $2,255 +$34 (+2%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 86¢ 94¢ $2,066 $2,253 +$187 (+9%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $1,923 $2,132 +$209 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $4,019 $2,119 −$1,901 (-47%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $1,956 $2,097 +$141 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,845 $2,028 +$182 (+10%)
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,500 $1,635 +$135 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,429 $1,476 +$47 (+3%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $1,278 $1,427 +$149 (+12%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $1,293 $1,421 +$128 (+10%)
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,186 $1,233 +$47 (+4%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,124 $1,190 +$66 (+6%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,076 $1,121 +$45 (+4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $890 $920 +$30 (+3%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $639 $669 +$31 (+5%)
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $613 $629 +$15 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3,651 +$241 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $3,060 −$1,391 -45%
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Jun 20 $340 +$3 +1%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $1,239 −$348 -28%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $376 +$96 +26%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $128 −$128 -100%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 20 $570 −$569 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $6,138 +$319 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1,706 +$294 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $8,523 +$2,927 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $313 +$665 +212%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $577 −$577 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $252 +$29 +11%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $1,355 +$342 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,304 −$2,304 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3,353 −$3,353 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,351 +$33 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 03 $3,236 −$3,236 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $7 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3,892 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $2,000 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $145 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $2 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $2 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $50 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82,386.42 · official $82,667.69 (match) · 384 history records