Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85a7…2072 sports 50 markets active 3d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,146 (-12%) realized −$6,221 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,003per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$489est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5,112
14 days−$1,644
30 days−$3,997
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$5,833
other 11% −$555
politics 5% +$109
world 1% −$129
crypto 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -54.1% -58.5% 33% 17% -68.6%
≤30d 30 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 33% -19.7%
≤90d 45 -29.6% -36.3% 33% 27% -22.0%
all 45 -29.6% -36.3% 33% 27% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.3% 27% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.4% 27% -29.5%
15% -48.0% 18% -36.3%
20% -53.1% 16% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,723) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$743 vs −$587 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$2,975
Realized−$6,221
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$489
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage35d
Avg bet$1,003
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,314 $2,424 +$109 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $270 $282 +$12 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $222 +$22 (+11%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $80 $14 −$66 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +72%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $594 −$580 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $2,635 +$73 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $188 −$188 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $187 −$187 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $4,309 −$4,230 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $5,836 +$3,076 +53%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $41 +$16 +39%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 06 $636 +$397 +62%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $805 −$800 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $3,108 +$3,663 +118%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $211 −$205 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $101 −$98 -97%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $2,695 +$736 +27%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 26 $164 −$93 -56%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 26 $389 +$25 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 26 $2,701 +$799 +30%
Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $1,090 −$90 -8%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $1,572 −$1,551 -99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $1,953 −$1,926 -99%
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 19 $118 −$26 -22%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $1,723 −$562 -33%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 18 $325 −$316 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $128 +$72 +56%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $119 +$842 +706%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 18 $4,355 −$2,820 -65%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $17 −$17 -97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $654 −$642 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $512 −$129 -25%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $488 +$12 +2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,283 +$532 +23%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $649 −$632 -97%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $287 −$275 -96%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $442 −$430 -97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 16 $1,738 +$899 +52%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $268 −$268 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 12 $3,869 −$1,493 -39%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $4 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 4¢ $201 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 5¢ $290 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 4¢ $13 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 9¢ $84 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 9¢ $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 9¢ $4 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 58¢ $1 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $145 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY England 98¢ $1,961 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY England 95¢ $674 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $35 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $11 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $0 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $1 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $47 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $91 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $1 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 39¢ $1,986 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 37¢ $45 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 38¢ $1,935 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 33¢ $2 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 33¢ $1 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 33¢ $211 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 32¢ $16 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 32¢ $58 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 14¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,974.57 · official $2,974.57 (match) · 393 history records