Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x85a6…dcc3 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$14
politics 34% −$11
sports 6% −$27
crypto 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 117 -5.3% -14.3% 4% 3% -9.8%
all 130 -4.7% -13.8% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 5% -9.7%
10% -22.0% 4% -18.4%
15% -29.5% 4% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage114d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $214 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $153 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $403 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $148 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $146 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $359 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $158 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $185 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $175 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $393 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $174 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $385 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $431 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $180 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $221 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $365 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $548 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 4h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $22 4h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $22 10h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 10h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 22d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $153 23d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $153 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $198 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $198 24d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $148 24d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $148 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records