Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85a4…c58d world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$2
other 14% −$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 2% +$6
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 17% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 21 +10.9% +0.4% 19% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 21 +10.9% +0.4% 19% 5% -9.0%
all 45 +5.3% -4.7% 33% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 4% -8.8%
10% -13.8% 4% -17.5%
15% -22.1% 4% -25.5%
20% -29.8% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage290d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 +$2 +6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $36 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jan 31 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 31 $18 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 14 $4 −$1 -25%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 13 $29 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 12 $16 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 8h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $14 23h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $14 23h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $5 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 27h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $11 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $25 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $12 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $4 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $39 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $39 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $33 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $22 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $12 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $14 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.39 · official $37.69 (match) · 156 history records