Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x85a2…77f8 other 106 markets active 2d ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$24 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 65L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$9
other 33% +$6
sports 18% +$7
finance 2% −$3
politics 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.1% -5.8% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 28 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 36 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 6% -9.4%
all 105 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage446d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 12¢ $14 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +13%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $344 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $167 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $157 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $150 +$8 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $318 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $202 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $547 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $189 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $132 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $315 +$6 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $169 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $298 −$3 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $149 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $65 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $166 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $151 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $146 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $53 −$8 -14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $171 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $154 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $70 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $147 +$6 +4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $2,276 +$3 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,195 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,102 +$6 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1,186 +$1 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win Staten Island in the New York City Mayoral Democ Jul 14 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? Jul 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win 3-0? Jul 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 11–18? Jul 13 $15 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? Jul 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $21 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $172 44h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $172 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $45 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $45 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $103 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $54 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $156 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $173 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $173 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $39 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $131 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $170 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 90¢ $135 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 90¢ $18 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $5 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $153 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $174 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $174 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $158 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $150 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $71 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $79 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.53 · official $9.53 (match) · 390 history records