Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x859f…0f26 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$127 (-38%) realized −$169 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$86
other 6% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.3% -36.9% 33% 33% -66.7%
≤30d 3 -30.3% -36.9% 33% 33% -66.7%
≤90d 3 -30.3% -36.9% 33% 33% -66.7%
all 3 -30.3% -36.9% 33% 33% -66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 33% -66.7%
10% -42.9% 33% -69.9%
15% -48.5% 33% -72.8%
20% -53.5% 0% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$69 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 68¢ $52 $66 +$14 (+27%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Over 68¢ 93¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+37%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 65¢ 82¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+27%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 56¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $31 −$11 -36%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $35 +$16 +46%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $129 −$127 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $27 32m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 43m
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $19 48m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $53 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $35 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $129 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.43 · official $181.43 (match) · 9 history records