Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x859d…30dd
world · 62 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$159 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$169 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$113
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)55 / 62
History coverage517d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 7 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 75¢ 78¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $16 $31 +$15 (+94%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 50¢ 52¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-32%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 37¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will CapCut - Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -31%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $39 −$2 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 22 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 20 $9 −$3 -34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $10 −$2 -16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 20 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 20 $109 −$6 -5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 20 $102 −$8 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 20 $413 −$10 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 20 $68 $0 -1%
North Korea missile test/launch by March 31? Mar 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 17 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar Mar 17 $9 $0 -3%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 14 $100 −$4 -4%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jan 14 $159 −$90 -56%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 03 $12 +$4 +32%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Dec 11 $36 +$15 +42%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 07 $90 +$2 +2%
Will CapCut - Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Dec 03 $40 −$20 -50%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $5,577 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 16 $5,655 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 16 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Sep 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 21 $5 +$3 +67%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Sep 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? Jul 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in May? Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 30 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? May 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? May 22 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 23 $980 −$1 -0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Feb 23 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$94
crypto 31% −$20
sports 11% +$10
world 7% −$32
economics 5% −$1
politics 5% −$8
tech 1% −$13
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 75¢ $14 8m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 75¢ $1 9m
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $24 10m
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $1 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 76¢ $15 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 37¢ $7 10m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 6¢ $1 20m
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 16¢ $3 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 16¢ $5 33m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 16¢ $3 42m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 89¢ $18 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 22¢ $22 44m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $18 47m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 18¢ $9 50m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 50m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 23¢ $23 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 37¢ $7 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 10¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 38¢ $8 1h
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? SELL No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $28 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $21 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $9 1h
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.5% -23.5% 11% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 17 -12.3% -20.7% 6% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 20 -11.3% -19.7% 5% 0% -12.5%
all 55 -9.8% -18.4% 31% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 9% -10.3%
10% -26.2% 9% -18.9%
15% -33.3% 7% -26.7%
20% -39.9% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.05 · official $113.05 (match) · 209 history records