Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x859c…3bf6 politics 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$21
politics 36% −$22
sports 11% +$7
crypto 6% −$2
tech 4% −$2
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 140 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 142
History coverage132d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $307 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $284 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $274 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $535 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $226 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $282 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $289 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $257 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $240 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $305 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $513 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $253 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $246 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $261 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 20 $302 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $292 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 18 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $312 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 16h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 25h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 39h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 18d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $307 25d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 27d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $229 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $229 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $284 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $284 29d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $245 29d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $245 29d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $274 29d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $274 30d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $302 30d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $302 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 31d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $318 32d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $318 32d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $305 33d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $305 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.94 · official $74.94 (match) · 454 history records