Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
85 0x859c…6eaf weather 494 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$384 (+19%) realized +$380 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%245W / 245L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$56
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$309
other 1% +$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +22.8% +11.1% 50% 50% -19.0%
≤30d 77 +26.6% +14.5% 45% 42% -8.5%
≤90d 269 +26.0% +14.0% 46% 42% -9.1%
all 490 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 45% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 45% -6.4%
10% -2.0% 38% -15.4%
15% -11.5% 31% -23.6%
20% -20.2% 26% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$380
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses245 / 245
Open positions4
Markets (closed)490 / 494
History coverage147d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? No 95¢ 100¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? No 67¢ 62¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? No 24¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $63 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 −$16 -68%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 18 $6 +$19 +307%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$27 +632%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +277%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$15 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$8 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $9 −$4 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $49 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 08 $38 −$11 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 6? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 −$12 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $41 +$55 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 +$4 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 01 $35 +$10 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 24¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY No 67¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY No 67¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL No 62¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.68 · official $70.68 (match) · 1567 history records