Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x859b…6d2b
other · 47 markets active 0h ago
5.5score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage34d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%
Chart Positions 2 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 +$3 +36%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +103%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $6 −$2 -38%
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $11 +$6 +56%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 −$4 -30%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$6 +228%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$1 -11%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $8 −$2 -19%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 +$7 +118%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $3 +$2 +74%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $3 +$3 +81%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $4 +$2 +49%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% +$19
sports 20% −$23
world 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 11m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 5d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 10d
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $4 10d
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 10d
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 60¢ $11 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 12d
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 87¢ $17 13d
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 13d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 13d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +36.9% +23.9% 67% 67% +17.7%
≤30d 37 +1.3% -8.4% 41% 41% -12.2%
≤90d 45 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 44% -9.1%
all 45 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 44% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 44% -9.1%
10% -15.7% 38% -17.8%
15% -23.9% 36% -25.7%
20% -31.3% 31% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.93 · official $9.93 (match) · 88 history records