Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:29:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x8599…ad67 crypto 1062 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,431 (+14%) realized +$1,431 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%556W / 506L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$25
14 days+$6
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$782
sports 3% +$34
other 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 38% +0.4%
≤30d 118 -8.0% -16.7% 51% 48% -0.6%
≤90d 1062 -1.9% -11.3% 52% 50% -2.7%
all 1062 -1.9% -11.3% 52% 50% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 50% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 48% -12.0%
15% -27.5% 43% -20.5%
20% -34.6% 39% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses556 / 506
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1062 / 1062
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1062 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 −$13 -76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +28%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $8 +$7 +82%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $4 +$4 +106%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $19 +$22 +116%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $16 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $32 +$21 +67%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $4 +$1 +32%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 +$3 +128%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$2 -30%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $8 +$2 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $3 +$5 +161%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +66%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $14 +$4 +32%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $31 +$18 +56%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $35 −$30 -86%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 +$9 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $46 +$52 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $46 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $46 +$9 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $46 +$45 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 7h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $14 27h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 28h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 39h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $8 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $4 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 8¢ $1 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 44¢ $2 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $2 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $10 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $7 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $7 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $6 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 33¢ $1 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 31¢ $4 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 43¢ $1 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 44¢ $3 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $4 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $2 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $4 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records