Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8599…e3cc other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 39% $0
crypto 8% +$4
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -8.9% 43% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -5.8% -14.7% 39% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 3% -8.8%
10% -22.9% 0% -17.5%
15% -30.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -37.2% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage473d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $51 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $8 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $6 −$2 -36%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $14 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? May 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $20 +$1 +8%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 16 $3 −$1 -51%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $17 +$3 +21%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $51 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $51 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $46 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $16 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $51 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $50 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $15 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $20 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $14 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $3 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $38 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records