Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x8597…daee world 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$89,566 (+7%) realized +$86,228 · open +$3,338
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate78%117W / 33L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$7,222per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$70,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,211
7 days+$10,374
14 days+$13,595
30 days+$3,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$22,807
politics 12% −$216
other 9% +$24,316
crypto 6% +$8,220
sports 1% +$4,073
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.8% -1.5% 64% 36% -1.2%
≤30d 59 +2.9% -6.9% 78% 27% -8.8%
≤90d 150 +43.7% +30.0% 78% 33% -5.3%
all 150 +43.7% +30.0% 78% 33% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.0% 33% -5.3%
10% +17.6% 19% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here +6.2% 10% -22.6%
20% -4.2% 9% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$8,989) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +82% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,335 vs −$3,042 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$70,463
Realized+$86,228
Unrealized+$3,338
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses117 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions26
Markets (closed)150 / 175
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$7,222
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 90¢ $9,706 $11,756 +$2,049 (+21%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 77¢ 86¢ $7,772 $8,700 +$928 (+12%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $6,818 $7,114 +$297 (+4%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $5,125 $5,605 +$480 (+9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 70¢ 84¢ $4,216 $5,049 +$834 (+20%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 89¢ 80¢ $5,340 $4,800 −$540 (-10%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 83¢ 96¢ $3,735 $4,298 +$562 (+15%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,888 $3,982 +$94 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 58¢ 72¢ $3,119 $3,906 +$787 (+25%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 63¢ 83¢ $2,483 $3,297 +$814 (+33%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $2,469 $2,566 +$97 (+4%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $2,229 $2,294 +$65 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,262 $2,278 +$16 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,687 $1,743 +$56 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $873 $932 +$59 (+7%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $777 $772 −$4 (-1%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 83¢ 87¢ $713 $747 +$35 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 90¢ $532 $567 +$35 (+7%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 94¢ 1¢ $3,257 $19 −$3,238 (-99%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 89¢ 93¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-97%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 18 $4,007 −$1,054 -26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? Jun 18 $3,133 +$172 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 18 $7,012 −$7,012 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $6,612 −$6,612 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $23,504 −$5,224 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10,440 +$16,939 +162%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $23,019 +$9,561 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $520 −$484 -93%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $390 +$769 +197%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 17 $3,784 +$155 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $12,550 +$1,433 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $2,100 +$594 +28%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $6,761 +$551 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $8,414 +$586 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $14,105 +$743 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $442 +$39 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,009 +$591 +29%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $4,496 +$4 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,590 +$910 +35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $5,155 +$395 +8%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $1,671 +$159 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5,606 +$376 +7%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $153 +$3 +2%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 04 $589 +$18 +3%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1,361 +$57 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $79,864 +$8,220 +10%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $4,838 −$3,695 -76%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 02 $7,974 +$25 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,340 +$120 +2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $594 +$5 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $12,065 −$8,065 -67%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $4,259 +$260 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $12,842 +$1,219 +10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $10,869 +$1,258 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $5,802 +$84 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9,454 +$1,546 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $31,789 −$12,329 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $4,051 +$466 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $3,973 +$327 +8%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $690 +$310 +45%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 27 $47,703 +$4,657 +10%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $9,265 +$626 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $8,989 +$2,208 +25%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 26 $1,088 +$615 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $3,075 −$2,448 -80%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $5,698 +$241 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $8,211 +$113 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $14,921 +$292 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $1,823 +$33 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 53m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 89¢ $2,225 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $112 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 89¢ $1,492 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 89¢ $16 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 89¢ $1,607 4h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $779 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,552 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $876 16h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $968 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $363 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $467 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $233 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $276 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $4,055 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $275 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $130 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 5¢ $36 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,862 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $540 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $950 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,900 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,765 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $595 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 5¢ $1 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,212 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $205 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $281 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $133 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70,463.21 · official $70,420.33 (match) · 3500 history records