Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8594…3733 sports 428 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,786 (+2%) realized +$5,200 · open −$414
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%274W / 147L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$1,418est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$34
14 days+$108
30 days−$11,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$3,224
politics 1% +$496
world 1% +$249
crypto 1% +$249
other 1% −$355
finance 0% +$284
tech 0% −$365
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.0% -31.3% 62% 38% -12.0%
≤30d 59 -15.4% -23.5% 46% 42% -45.0%
≤90d 268 +4.0% -5.9% 70% 57% -7.8%
all 421 +4.6% -5.4% 65% 55% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 55% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 44% -16.6%
15% -22.7% 33% -24.6%
20% -30.3% 28% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$630) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$258 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$2,802
Realized+$5,200
Unrealized−$414
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses274 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,418
Open positions7
Markets (closed)421 / 428
History coverage109d
Avg bet$501
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 421 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 63¢ 58¢ $1,153 $1,071 −$82 (-7%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $1,095 $938 −$158 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $522 $389 −$133 (-26%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 57¢ $135 $172 +$38 (+28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $182 $109 −$73 (-40%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $72 $64 −$9 (-12%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? No 56¢ 60¢ $56 $60 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $153 +$58 +38%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $147 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $65 −$63 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $658 +$42 +6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $465 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $165 +$335 +203%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $192 +$108 +56%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $57 −$56 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $54 +$196 +365%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$50 +101%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $58 +$142 +245%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $52 −$51 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $299 +$201 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1,109 +$891 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Cadillac Champions Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Cadillac Championship? Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Oeiras 4: Zdenek Kolar vs Hugo Dellien Jun 14 $236 +$61 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Hugo Dellien vs Jesper de Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 14 $365 −$365 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 14 $384 −$384 -100%
La Bisbal: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Elena Pridankina Jun 14 $286 −$286 -100%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh Jun 14 $901 −$157 -17%
Jiujiang: Carol Zhao vs Xiaodi You Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $569 −$569 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Titouan Jun 14 $2,722 +$305 +11%
Aix en Provence: Martin Landaluce vs Ethan Quinn Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Camila Osorio vs Panna Udvardy Jun 14 $367 −$367 -100%
Jiujiang: Xinxin Yao vs Haruka Kaji Jun 14 $886 −$886 -100%
Cagliari: Lorenzo Sonego vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 14 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Thomas Faurel Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Santos: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Jose Pereira Jun 14 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Jiujiang: En-Shuo Liang vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $3,722 −$3,722 -100%
Mauthausen: Hugo Gaston vs Darwin Blanch Jun 14 $7,602 −$3,706 -49%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $149 +$101 +67%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $168 −$165 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $22 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $22 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,801.85 · official $2,801.85 (match) · 1974 history records