Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x8594…a044 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+10%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%39W / 20L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$42
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$7
other 32% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.5% -9.1% 69% 56% +0.6%
≤30d 59 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 54% -0.6%
≤90d 59 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 54% -0.6%
all 59 -0.3% -9.8% 66% 54% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 54% -0.6%
10% -18.4% 44% -10.1%
15% -26.3% 34% -18.8%
20% -33.5% 27% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses39 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage10d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 -9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$8 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$11 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 23m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $47 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $29 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $38 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.40 · official $14.40 (match) · 103 history records