Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8594…3025 politics 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$735 (+16%) realized +$546 · open +$189
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$359per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$10
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +226.5% +195.4% 50% 50% -0.3%
≤90d 12 +37.7% +24.5% 58% 8% -3.9%
all 12 +37.7% +24.5% 58% 8% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.5% 8% -3.9%
10% +12.6% 8% -13.1%
15% +1.7% 8% -21.5%
20% -8.2% 8% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.36 per $1 lost it wins $4.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,489
Realized+$546
Unrealized+$189
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage78d
Avg bet$359
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $1,300 $1,489 +$189 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 07 $359 −$10 -3%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co May 31 $10 +$47 +456%
Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 19 $32 $0 +1%
Will Rebecca Bligh win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Colleen Hardwick win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Sean Orr win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 16 $14 $0 -3%
Will Amanda Burrows win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Fred Harding win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will Kirk LaPointe win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will Tim Louis win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 49¢ $107 1h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 17h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 51¢ $92 38h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 50¢ $71 38h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 47¢ $92 38h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 40h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 46¢ $82 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $512 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL Yes 53¢ $2,167 2d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 6d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 56¢ $71 7d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 55¢ $36 7d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 8d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 8d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 11d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 11d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 11d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,488.97 · official $1,488.97 (match) · 240 history records