Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x858b…a2ce
weather · 819 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,916 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,068 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized+$2,068
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses709 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)817 / 819
History coverage31d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day87.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 817 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$55
14 days−$19
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$31 +216%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 −$3 -549%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$14 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $53 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $11 −$9 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $32 −$24 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $15 −$9 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $35 −$18 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $36 −$24 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$12 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 −$12 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$19 +64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 09 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $85 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $75 −$19 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$32 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $14 −$8 -59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $13 +$23 +172%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $67 +$6 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $486 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $33 −$30 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 06 $30 −$12 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $39 −$4 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $285 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $119 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2,093
crypto 0% $0
other 0% −$13
politics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 29m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -28.1% -34.9% 35% 16% -12.1%
≤30d 799 +1.5% -8.2% 87% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 817 +3.8% -6.0% 87% 5% -8.1%
all 817 +3.8% -6.0% 87% 5% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 5% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -16.9%
15% -23.2% 4% -24.9%
20% -30.8% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.86 · official $59.88 (match) · 3500 history records