Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x858a…bfd0 world 22 markets active 14h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$3
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
other 3% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 22 +0.3% -9.2% 59% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage446d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $37 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 +$3 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $11 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 02 $11 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $7 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $4 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $22 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $40 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $32 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records