Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8585…cbf4
crypto · 353 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,382 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,336 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$125
Realized−$1,336
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses204 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)352 / 353
History coverage129d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 352 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $146 $99 −$47 (-32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 14 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11AM ET Apr 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 11 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 10 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 09 $6 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 05 $60 +$10 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 05 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 04 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 04 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 02 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 02 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 01 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 01 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 31 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 28 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $1,025 +$225 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$1,162
sports 18% +$251
crypto 12% −$520
world 9% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 18h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 21h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 21h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 21h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 21h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 22h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 22h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $11 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $18 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 154 -46.8% -51.8% 32% 27% -64.2%
all 352 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 21% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 21% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 15% -23.4%
15% -32.9% 13% -30.8%
20% -39.5% 11% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.53 · official $124.53 (match) · 3500 history records